What the Study Found
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Liberty Street Economics blog (published 8 October 2026), 46% of employer firms in its 2025 Small Business Credit Survey said they or their employees were using AI tools, and another 15% planned to adopt AI within twelve months. The AI module covered 5,248 employer firms, with results weighted to match the national population of employer firms.
Firms using AI were more upbeat. On net employment expectations, AI users scored 33 points against 15 for non-users. On revenue, the raw gap was 48 against 21. After the authors controlled for firm and owner characteristics and past performance, the gaps shrank to about 10 points for employment and 14 points for revenue, but stayed positive.
Optimism Is Not Results
The authors stress that these are associations, not causal effects, and that they measure expectations, not realized outcomes. Among AI users, 77% reported no change in labor costs, and only 31% reported increased sales from AI use. Whether adopters actually achieve the growth they expect is left for future research.
Three Things to Do Now
- Pick one measurable job. Only 31% of users saw higher sales, so avoid vague adoption. Choose one task, such as answering enquiries or drafting product copy, and track whether it saves time or wins orders.
- Fix the process before adding a tool. Among AI users, 51% had integrated AI partially or fully into business processes. A written, repeatable workflow is what lets a tool stick.
- Judge by sales, not by mood. Optimism is cheap. Review after a month whether response time, leads or revenue actually moved before expanding spend.
AI users are more optimistic, but the study cannot say AI caused it. Treat AI as a tool to test against your own numbers, not a guaranteed growth lever.
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